[1] Ji Yanjie, Wang Wei, Deng Wei,. Available parking space occupancy change characteristicsand short-term forecasting model [J]. Journal of Southeast University (English Edition), 2007, 23 (4): 604-608. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2007.04.025]

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Available parking space occupancy change characteristicsand short-term forecasting model()

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Journal of Southeast University (English Edition)[ISSN:1003-7985/CN:32-1325/N]

Volumn:

23

Issue:

2007 4

Page:

604-608

Research Field:

Traffic and Transportation Engineering

Publishing date:

2007-12-30

Info

Title:

Available parking space occupancy change characteristicsand short-term forecasting model

Author(s):

Ji Yanjie;  Wang Wei;  Deng Wei

School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Keywords:

available parking space occupancy;  change characteristics;  short-term forecasting;  wavelet analysis;  weighted Markov chain

PACS:

U491.7

DOI:

10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2007.04.025

Abstract:

Based on an available parking space occupancy(APSO)survey conducted in Nanjing, China, an APSO forecasting model is proposed.The APSO survey results indicate that the time series of APSO with different time-sections are periodical and self-similar, and the fluctuation of the APSO increases with the decrease in time-sections.Taking the short-time change behavior into account, an APSO forecasting model combined wavelet analysis and a weighted Markov chain is presented.In this model, an original APSO time series is first decomposed by wavelet analysis, and the results include low frequency signals representing the basic trends of APSO and several high frequency signals representing disturbances of the APSO.Then different Markov models are used to forecast the changes of low and high frequency signals, respectively.Finally, integrating the predicted results induces the final forecasted APSO.A case study verifies the applicability of the proposed model.The comparisons between measured and forecasted results show that the model is a competent model and its accuracy relies on real-time update of the APSO database.

References:

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[3] Yang Zhaosheng, Chen Xiaodong.Research on the estimation of effective parking space of the intelligentzed parking guidance system [J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2003, 3(4):12-15.(in Chinese)
[4] Pan Min.Study on the design method of city parking guidance and information system [D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University, 2006.(in Chinese)
[5] Gai Chunying, Pei Yulong.Study of the GM(1, 1)-Markov chain model on highway freight forecast [J].China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2003, 16(3):113-116.(in Chinese)
[6] Aussem A, Campbell J, Murtagh F.Wavelet-based feature extraction and decomposition strategies for financial forecasting [J].Journal of Computational Intelligence in Finance, 1998, 6(2):5-12.
[7] Tong C O, Wong S C, Leung B S Y.Estimation of parking accumulation profiles from survey data[J].Transportation, 2004, 31(2):183-202.
[8] Mallat S.A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition:the wavelet representation [J].IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 1989, 11(4):674-693.

Memo

Memo:

Biographies: Ji Yanjie(1980—), female, doctor, lecturer, jiyanjie@seu.edu.cn;Wang Wei(corresponding author), male, doctor, professor, wangwei@seu.edu.cn.

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