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Title:: Earthquake disaster chain model based on complex networks for urban engineering systems

Author(s):: Lu Zheng¹; 2; Yan Deyu¹; Jiang Huanjun¹; 2; ¹Department of Disaster Mitigation for Structures, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
²State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Keywords:: earthquake; disaster chain; seismic resilience; secondary disaster; complex network; vulnerability; risk level

PACS:: TU312

DOI:: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2024.03.002

Abstract:: According to news reports on severe earthquakes since 2008, a total of 51 cases with magnitudes of 6.0 or above were analyzed, and 14 frequently occurring secondary disasters were identified. A disaster chain model was developed using principles from complex network theory. The vulnerability and risk level of each edge in this model were calculated, and high-risk edges and disaster chains were identified. The analysis reveals that the edge “floods→building collapses” has the highest vulnerability. Implementing measures to mitigate this edge is crucial for delaying the spread of secondary disasters. The highest risk is associated with the edge “building collapses→casualties, ” and increased risks are also identified for chains such as “earthquake→building collapses→casualties, ” “earthquake→landslides and debris flows→dammed lakes, ” and “dammed lakes→floods→building collapses.” Following an earthquake, the prompt implementation of measures is crucial to effectively disrupt these chains and minimize the damage from secondary disasters.

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