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[1] SUGIRA Jean Claude, ZHOU Xiaoyi, LI Xiaoya, LI Shutao, et al. Relationship between the extreme value distribution of bending moments and traffic characteristics for simply supported bridges based on WIM data [J]. Journal of Southeast University (English Edition), 2026, 42 (1): 65-73. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2026.01.006]
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Relationship between the extreme value distribution of bending moments and traffic characteristics for simply supported bridges based on WIM data()
基于WIM 数据的简支桥梁弯矩极值分布与交通特性的关系

Journal of Southeast University (English Edition)[ISSN:1003-7985/CN:32-1325/N]

Volumn:
42
Issue:
2026 1
Page:
65-73
Research Field:
Civil Engineering
Publishing date:
2026-03-20

Info

Title:
Relationship between the extreme value distribution of bending moments and traffic characteristics for simply supported bridges based on WIM data
基于WIM 数据的简支桥梁弯矩极值分布与交通特性的关系
Author(s):
SUGIRA Jean Claude1, ZHOU Xiaoyi1,2, LI Xiaoya3, LI Shutao4, RUAN Xin5, WANG Hao6
1.School of Transportation Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Safety, Durability and Healthy Operation of Long Span Bridges, Nanjing 211189, China
3.Zhejiang Scientific Research Institute of Transport, Hangzhou 310005, China
4.CCCC Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., Beijing 100010, China
5.School of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
6.School of Civil Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
吉安1, 周小燚1,2, 李晓娅3, 李书韬4, 阮欣5, 王浩6
1.东南大学交通工程学院, 南京 211189
2.长大桥梁安全长寿与健康运维全国重点实验室, 南京 211189
3.浙江省交通科学研究院, 杭州 310005
4.中交公路规划设计院有限公司, 北京 100010
5.同济大学土木工程学院, 上海 200092
6.东南大学土木工程学院, 南京 211189
Keywords:
site-specific factors;  extreme value;  traffic load;  weigh-in-motion(WIM);  generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters;  Monte Carlo simulation
场地特定因素;  极值;  交通载荷;  动态称重;  广义极值分布(GEV)参数;  蒙特卡洛模拟
PACS:
TU391
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2026.01.006
Abstract:
Extreme traffic loads significantly challenge the safety and cost-effectiveness of highway bridges, especially under site-specific traffic conditions. Conventional assessments often rely on overly conservative load models, leading to excessive structural design. In this study, a framework for the prediction of maximum bending moments in simply supported bridges is developed by integrating weigh-in-motion (WIM) data, traffic microsimulation, and generalized extreme value (GEV) regression modeling to establish relationships between the GEV parameters (μ, σ, ξ) and traffic factors—heavy vehicle proportion, bridge span length, vehicle speed, headway, and traffic volume. Using one-year WIM data from 7.4 million vehicles, the developed models for μ and σ exhibit high predictive accuracy (R²>0.95) and are validated through leave-one-out cross-validation. The prediction of ξ is less accurate (R² ≈ 0.6), requiring further improvement. Applying these models to a 1 000-year return level yields a reliable, data-driven extrapolation, supporting optimized bridge design and safety assessment under varying traffic conditions.
极端交通荷载对高速公路桥梁安全与经济性构成挑战,特定交通条件下影响更显著。传统设计方法采用保守载荷模型,易导致结构过度设计。本文结合动态称重(WIM)数据、交通微观模拟与广义极值分布(GEV)回归,提出基于交通特征参数的简支梁桥弯矩极值预测模型。以某高速WIM记录的740万辆车数据为基础,分析GEV分布的位置参数μ、尺度参数σ、形状参数ξ与重型车比例、跨径、车速、车距、流量5类交通特征的关系。结果表明,模型可高精度预测弯矩极值分布,μ与σ的R²超过0.95,并通过留一法交叉验证验证了模型稳健性。但ξ预测精度较低,R²约为0.6,尾部行为表征需进一步研究。数值分析显示,该模型能快速预测车辆荷载效应极值,为1 000年重现期值的可靠性评估提供数据驱动方案。

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Memo

Memo:
Received: 2025-06-14; Revised: 2025-09-15.
Biographies: SUGIRA Jean Claude (1995—), male, Ph.D.candidate; ZHOU Xiaoyi (corresponding author), male, doctor, professor, xiaoyizhou@seu.edu.cn.
Foundation items: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.52278149), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No.BZ2024015), the Opening Project of State Key Laboratory for Track Technology of High-Speed Railway (No.2023YJ375), the Opening Project of Zhejiang Engineering Centre of Road and Bridge Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Technology (No.202402G).
Citation: SUGIRA Jean Claude, ZHOU Xiaoyi, LI Xiaoya, et al. Relationship between the extreme value distribution of bending moments and traffic characteristics for simply supported bridges based on WIM data[J]. Journal of Southeast University (English Edition), 2026, 42(1): 65-73. DOI: 10. 3969/j. issn. 1003-7985. 2026. 01. 006.
Last Update: 2026-03-20