|Table of Contents|

[1] Zhang Jin, Xu Junxiang, Guo Jingni,. Forecasting method of induced passenger flowfor Sichuan-Tibet railway based on improved MD model [J]. Journal of Southeast University (English Edition), 2020, 36 (1): 98-106. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2020.01.013]

Forecasting method of induced passenger flowfor Sichuan-Tibet railway based on improved MD model()

Journal of Southeast University (English Edition)[ISSN:1003-7985/CN:32-1325/N]

2020 1
Research Field:
Traffic and Transportation Engineering
Publishing date:


Forecasting method of induced passenger flowfor Sichuan-Tibet railway based on improved MD model
Zhang Jin Xu Junxiang Guo Jingni
School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
induced passenger flow passenger flow forecasting prospect theory modal demand(MD)model
Aiming at the limitation of forecasting induced passenger flow with the modal demand(MD)model, which assumes that the travel time value and travel utility obey the fixed probability distribution, a forecasting method of induced passenger flow is proposed by using an improved MD model based on the prospect theory. Combined with the actual traffic flow survey data of the Sichuan Tibet passenger transport channel, the improved MD model is used to forecast the total passenger flow and induced passenger flow along the Sichuan Tibet railway. Finally, the improved forecasting model is compared with the traditional MD model and the Logit model, and the effects of the parameters in the foreground theory on the forecasting results are analyzed. The results show that the Logit model forecasting result is 8.5% higher than the improved MD model forecasting result, the traditional MD model forecasting result is 3.7% higher than the improved MD model forecasting result, but the difference between the forecasting results of each model is within 10%.The parameter value in the prospect theory has a significant effect on the passenger flow forecasting results, especially in the two types of travelers, the variable and the conservative, where the forecasted difference reaches 23%.


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Biography: Zhang Jin(1963—), male, doctor, professor, zhjswjtu@swjtu.edu.cn.
Foundation item: Project supported by China National Railway Group Co., Ltd(No. KF2019-010-B).
Citation: Zhang Jin, Xu Junxiang, Guo Jingni.Forecasting method of induced passenger flow for Sichuan-Tibet railway based on improved MD model[J].Journal of Southeast University(English Edition), 2020, 36(1):98-106.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2020.01.013.
Last Update: 2020-03-20