|Table of Contents|

[1] Sun Lu, Ge Minli, Gu Wenjun, et al. Characterizing uncertainty in pavement performance prediction [J]. Journal of Southeast University (English Edition), 2012, 28 (1): 85-93. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2012.01.015]
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Characterizing uncertainty in pavement performance prediction()
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Journal of Southeast University (English Edition)[ISSN:1003-7985/CN:32-1325/N]

Volumn:
28
Issue:
2012 1
Page:
85-93
Research Field:
Traffic and Transportation Engineering
Publishing date:
2012-03-30

Info

Title:
Characterizing uncertainty in pavement performance prediction
Author(s):
Sun Lu1;  2;  Ge Minli1;  Gu Wenjun1;  Xu Bing1
1School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
2Department of Civil Engineering, Catholic University of America, Washington DC 20064, USA
Keywords:
-
PACS:
U418.6
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2012.01.015
Abstract:
Taking variability and uncertainty involved in performance prediction into account, in order to make the prediction reliable and meaningful, a distribution-based method is developed to predict future PSI. This method, which is based on the AASHTO pavement performance model, treats predictor variables as random variables with certain probability distributions and obtains the distribution of future PSI through the method of Monte-Carlo simulation. A computer program PERFORM using Monte Carlo simulation is developed to implement the numerical computation. Simulation results based on pavement and traffic parameters show that traffic, surface layer material property, and initial pavement performance are the most significant factors affecting pavement performance. Once the distribution of future PSI is determined, statistics such as the mean and the variance of future PSI are readily available.

References:

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Memo

Memo:
Biography: Sun Lu(1972—), male, doctor, professor, sunl@ cua.edu.
Foundation items: The US National Science Foundation(No.CMMI-0408390, CMMI-0644552), the American Chemical Society Petroleum Research Foundation(No.PRF-44468-G9), Chang Jiang Scholars Program, the Fok Ying-Tong Education Foundation(No.114024), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.SBK200910046), the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.0901005C).
Citation: Sun Lu, Ge Minli, Gu Wenjun, et al.Characterizing uncertainty in pavement performance prediction[J].Journal of Southeast University(English Edition), 2012, 28(1):85-93.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2012.01.015]
Last Update: 2012-03-20