[1] Deng Yiling, Guo Xiucheng,. Modeling household car ownershipusing ordered logistic regression model [J]. Journal of Southeast University (English Edition), 2014, 30 (4): 500-505. [doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2014.04.017]

Copy

Modeling household car ownershipusing ordered logistic regression model()

Share：

Journal of Southeast University (English Edition)[ISSN:1003-7985/CN:32-1325/N]

Volumn:

30

Issue:

2014 4

Page:

500-505

Research Field:

Traffic and Transportation Engineering

Publishing date:

2014-12-31

Info

Title:

Modeling household car ownershipusing ordered logistic regression model

Author(s):

Deng Yiling;  Guo Xiucheng

School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Keywords:

household car ownership;  ordered logistic regression model;  marginal effect;  household characteristics;  neighborhood characteristics

PACS:

U491

DOI:

10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2014.04.017

Abstract:

Considering both the discrete and ordered nature of the household car ownership, an ordered logistic regression model to predict household car ownership is established by using the data of Nanjing Household Travel Survey in the year 2012. The model results show that some household characteristics such as the number of driver licenses, household income and home location are significant. Yet, the intersection density indicating the street patterns of home location, and the dummy near the subway and the bus stop density indicating the transit accessibility of home location are insignificant. The model estimation obtains a good γ²(the goodness of fit of the model)and the model validation also shows a good performance in prediction. The marginal effects of all the significant explanatory variables are calculated to quantify the odds change in the household car ownership following a one-unit change in the explanatory variables.

References:

[1] Ögüt K S. S-curve models to determine the car ownership in Turkey [J]. ARI, the Bulletin of the Istanbul Technical University, 2004, 54(2): 65-69.
[2] Jong G D, Fox J, Daly A, et al. Comparison of car ownership models [J]. Transport Reviews, 2004, 24(4): 379-408.
[3] Lerman S R, Ben-Akiva M. Disaggregate behavior model of automobile ownership [J]. Transportation Research Record, 1976(569): 34-55.
[4] Daly A, Zachary S. The effect of free public transport on the journey to work [R]. Berkshire, England: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1977.
[5] Mohammadian A, Miller E J. Dynamic modeling of household automobile transactions [J]. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2003, 1831: 98-105.
[6] Roorda M J, Mohammadian A, Miller E J. Toronto area car ownership study: a retrospective interview and its applications [J]. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2000, 1719: 69-76.
[7] De Jong G C, Kitamura R. A review of household dynamic vehicle ownership models: holdings models versus transactions models [J]. Transportation, 2009, 36(6):733-743.
[8] National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China city statistical yearbook[M].Beijing, China: China Statistics Press, 2013.(in Chinese)

Memo

Memo:

Biographies: Deng Yiling(1987—), male, graduate; Guo Xiucheng(corresponding author), male, doctor, professor, seuguo@seu.edu.cn.
Citation: Deng Yiling, Guo Xiucheng.Modeling household car ownership using ordered logistic regression model[J].Journal of Southeast University(English Edition), 2014, 30(4):500-505.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-7985.2014.04.017]

Common functions